When to Skip a Continuation Bet on the Flop

A continuation bet on the flop (also known as a c-bet) is a common poker move where the player who raised preflop continues their aggression by betting on the flop.

While this strategy can be effective in most cases, there are situations where skipping the continuation bet might be the better decision. We will explore these scenarios in this article.

Table of Contents:

- Multi-way Pots

- Nuts on Dry Boards

- Medium-strength Hands

- Aggressive Opponents

Multi-way Pots

The number of players on the flop significantly impacts your c-betting strategy. The more opponents in the pot, the higher the likelihood that one of them has a strong hand or a strong draw. Applying a continuation bet in a multi-way pot should be limited to situations where you have a genuinely strong hand.

For example, if you have a top pair with a top kicker or better, a continuation bet is justified because you want to get value with your strong hand and reduce the number of players in the pot who could outdraw you.

However, you should refrain from bluffing. Bluffs in multi-way pots lose their effectiveness because opponents are more likely to call or raise your bets. This means your bluffs will be less successful in the long run, leading to a loss of money in the long run.

In Hand2Note 4 reports, I filtered scenarios where I made an open raise preflop and then made a continuation bet on the flop. I also set the number of players on the flop to 2, selecting only situations where I faced just one opponent:

As we can see, even against one opponent, the continuation bet works only 46% of the time.

Then I pinned this report and, in a new report on the right, specified that there were at least 3 players in the pot on the flop, comparing the reports side by side:

We can observe that in this scenario, the frequency with which I won the pot on the flop with a continuation bet dropped to 39%. Therefore, the more players in the pot, the stronger hands you should choose for your c-bet.

Nuts on Dry Boards

When you have the nuts on a very dry board, the opponent is most likely to miss the flop. As a result, a continuation bet may not generate additional profit because they will probably just fold.

In these situations, it makes sense to employ a slow-play strategy and play your monster hand passively. Checking with the nuts can induce the opponent to bet in an attempt to steal the pot. This way, you can get additional money from their bluff.

Additionally, by giving your opponent a free card, you allow them the chance to improve on the turn, catching a pair or a draw with which they will be willing to pay you on later streets. This allows you to extract value from hands they would have folded to a flop bet.

We opened with a raise from the Early Position with pocket 99s and got two calls - from a regular player in the Middle Position and a fish with a VPIP of 61% in the Cutoff.

On the 997 rainbow flop, we hit quads, and our task is to extract as much money as possible from this situation. It is unlikely that the regular player has connected with this board and will put money into the pot, so our main hope is the fish.

In the Hand2Note 4 HUD, we see that the recreational player’s WTSD stat is only 26%, meaning they rarely get to showdown, and given their very wide range, they will often fold to a bet. On the other hand, an inflated WWSF stat of 51% indicates that the player is very aggressive and often puts pressure on opponents.

Based on these data, it is beneficial for us to skip the continuation bet on the flop and check, hoping for a bluff from the aggressive fish and giving both opponents the chance to improve on the turn and pay us off on later streets.

Medium-strength Hands

Aggression is an important component of successful poker play. However, hitting the flop is not always a reason to bet. Even experienced players often find themselves in difficult situations by inflating the pot with medium-strength hands.

With such hands, you should not play for a large pot. By making a continuation bet, you can complicate the hand for yourself. For example, if the opponent raises, you will have to make a tough decision on whether to continue with a marginal hand.

Instead, consider checking on the flop. By checking, you control the size of the pot and do not narrow the opponent’s range. This allows you to catch them bluffing on later streets if they show aggression.

If the opponent checks again on the turn, you can make a delayed continuation bet and try to extract value from weaker hands.

Thus, by checking with medium-strength hands, you simplify the play and retain the opportunity to play your hand more profitably on later streets.

In Hand2Note 4 reports, I filtered situations where I opened with a raise preflop and then made a continuation bet on the flop, playing in position with medium-strength hands, specifically top pair with a weak kicker or middle pair:

Comparing Action Profit indicators in the report, we can see that checking with medium-strength hands brings more money in each such situation than a continuation bet.

Aggressive Opponents

A strategically important skill of a strong poker player is the ability to adjust to the opponent’s playing style and exploit their weaknesses.

When playing against aggressive players, in situations where you would normally make a continuation bet, it is sometimes more advantageous to check.

Use the opponents’ aggression to your advantage. For example, with strong hands out of position, instead of a c-bet, you can check and provoke the aggressive player to bet. Then you can check-raise to build a bigger pot and increase your expected profit.

We made an open raise from the Small Blind with AQ offsuit and called by a regular player on the Big Blind. We hit the flop very well, making top two pair, and now we need to choose the optimal line of play out of position. Let’s study the opponent’s statistics.

Relying on high WWSF and Aggression Factor stats, we can conclude that we are dealing with an aggressive player.

In the pop-up, we also see that the opponent attacked a missed continuation bet on the flop 80% of the time when playing in position.

Based on these statistics, instead of making a continuation bet, it is better for us to check on the flop with the plan to induce the opponent to bet and then go for a check-raise. This way, we can build a bigger pot and maximize profit with our strong hand.

A continuation bet is a powerful tool, but in certain situations, a check can be more advantageous. When planning your actions on the flop, always evaluate the profitability of a c-bet and consider alternative lines of play.

With Hand2Note 4, you can analyze opponents’ statistics, exploit their playing styles, and determine when to make a continuation bet on the flop and when it is better to skip it.